Thursday, 25 November 2010

Indian Markets - Crystal ball gazing: Update

On October 2, I had a post on my guess on the market direction. (To read it click here).

Here is what I had written back then:-
  1. Sensex/Nifty will make a dash for the all-time high sometime soon (maybe as early as October end)
  2. Either breach it or turn back just short of it.
  3. A bout of profit booking follows. Indices go down 10%-15% (back to around 18K-18.5K)
  4. Main indices remain sideways for the next couple of quarters.
  5. Mid caps move up from now as the last few weeks the valuation gap has widened.
  6. Sometime after 2-3 quarters, the next up move starts for the main indices. By that time, PE is down to about 22 (which is still high but certainly not hitting the roof).
I am happy that for one my sense was correct (till now that is). The markets have exactly followed the first three points. Now, it remains to be seen if the remaining points play out as I expect them to.

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