Friday, 14 December 2012

Portfolio Performance - 2012

This year onwards I have decided to close my stock books on Dec 15th to enable me to enjoy the Christmas season a bit better and catch up on some pending reading. So, here is an update on my portfolio and how it performed. I believe quantitative evaluation is important although performance (good/bad) needs to be judged over a 3-5 year period.

This year was an interesting and eventful year (probably like any other). Overall the market performed well, contrary to popular belief. Gold was up to record highs this year based on the economic fears around the world. China and India continued on its path of guzzling gold. The Indian rupee fell to Rs 56 levels before recovering to around the current 54 odd levels. How long it stays at this level or which direction it moves next is anybody's guess.

The Indian government finally woke up and started on some much needed reforms. FDI in retail, creating a Cabinet Committee on Investments (CCI), the urea investment policy and the much awaited Land Acquisition Bill. There were significant activities in the political front with the civil society movement and Arvind Kejriwal launching a political party amidst a plethora of scam accusations.

Sensex started the year at 15455 and is up 25% till date. My portfolio performed well over the year. It appreciated 71% over this period. I have also started looking at comparing the performance with HDFC Equity Fund (a fund which I admire for its consistent and long term good performance). HDFC Equity Fund has returned about 30.5% over this period.

I have not added any money over the period of this year so any changes to the portfolio weightage is due to relative performance of the stock. I have added Amara Raja Batteries, Atul Auto, CEBBCO, Kaveri Seeds and Thangamayil Jewellery. I have re-added PI Indistries more from a tracking perspective and intend to build up my positions if the results pan out well in the next 2 quarters. I have booked profits in Elecon, GEI Industrial, HSIL, IFB Agro and Opto Circuits.


Name of Company
% of Portfolio (Apr'12)
% of Portfolio (Dec'12)
Comments
Cumulative Portfolio%
Mayur Uniquoters
11.68%
19.08%
Hold / Buy On Declines
19.08%
Supreme Ind
15.33%
16.37%
Hold
35.45%
Shriram Transport Finance
7.75%
8.22%
Buy
43.67%
Astral Poly
5.90%
8.02%
Accumulate
51.69%
Cera Sanitaryware
3.92%
7.88%
Accumulate
59.57%
Yes Bank
6.02%
6.03%
Buy
65.60%
Amara Raja
0.00%
5.06%
Buy
70.66%
Titan Industries
4.59%
4.32%
Hold / Sell On Advances
74.99%
JK Lakshmi Cement
2.88%
3.51%
Buy
78.50%
Balaji Amines
5.04%
3.51%
Hold
82.02%
Sintex India
0.91%
3.00%
Buy (2 year horizon)
85.02%
Auto Auto
0.00%
2.88%
Accumulate
87.90%
Gujarat Reclaim
2.67%
2.56%
Buy
90.46%
Balkrishna Industries
6.51%
2.44%
Hold & Watch FY13
92.90%
CEBBCO
0.00%
2.20%
Hold
95.10%
Kaveri Seeds
0.00%
2.02%
Accumulate
97.12%
Thangamayil Jewellery
0.00%
1.22%
Hold / Buy On Declines
98.34%
Cravatex
5.23%
0.84%
On watchlist for FY13 results
99.18%
PI Industries
0.00%
0.50%
Accumulate
99.69%
Cash
10.04%
0.31%

100.00%
Elecon Engg
2.49%
0.00%
Profit Booked
100.00%
GEI Industrial
3.73%
0.00%
Profit Booked
100.00%
HSIL
2.05%
0.00%
Profit Booked
100.00%
IFB Agro
1.89%
0.00%
Profit Booked
100.00%
Opto Circuits
1.37%
0.00%
Profit Booked
100.00%
 

I intend to continue my focus on mid & small cap companies and ones which are reasonably priced.

10 comments:

  1. Hi

    I have been buying put option (current month only). Haven't seen put option in this year portfolio. Just wondering whether you have changed your opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not very sure that the market has moved up significantly to warrant a naked put option. If the market moves up a lot or too fast, buying a put option just for downside protection (as insurance) is a good choice.

      Delete
  2. Great performance !! Small typo in the figure "April 12" mentioned twice. Also if you could mention your hold price and the CMP it would give a better current idea. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Bhaskar. Corrected the mistake. Buying price is one of worst things anyone can look for in a portfolio (own or others). It anchors a person to that price and prevents rational decision making. The question that one needs to ask is at the current price what should I do with the stock.

      Delete
  3. Hi Abhishek,

    Congrats! for the great performance.

    For 3 stocks (Yes, Amara Raja and GRP) which you have mentioned as buys, what should be the max allocation to them as per you ?

    and suppose you can't infuse further cash, then what all would you sell to achieve those percentages in those 3 stocks ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rudra,

      Thanks. You have asked one of toughest questions I have been grappling with in recent years - portfolio allocation and when to see what.

      If you see the stocks that I have marked to be on my buy list, they are a mix of financial stocks (Yes Bank, Shriram Transport), Cement (JK Lakshmi), undervalued plays (GRP), sound business at a reasonable price (ARBL) and turnaround (Sintex).

      In my portfolio, I am very careful/wary of stocks when they go beyond 10%. Both Mayur and Supreme have been multibaggers so their acquisition cost is much much lower than CMP for me and hence I continue to hold on without disturbing them.

      I think a 5% weightage (just as a rule of thumb) can be easily done for each of the stocks you mention. Depending on your portfolio, you could go up to 10%.

      Delete
  4. Hi Abhishek,
    Your blog has been a great guide.
    Some updates on your exits regularly can really help as an alert that people like me who follow your blog regularly need to evaluate those stocks if they are holding.

    Cheers,
    Sarang

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Sarang. Will keep your suggestion in mind. However, I don't trade regularly, so buy/sell is fairly low frequency events.

      Delete
    2. Agree - and I think your low frequency makes your blog attractive. Long term investors are always more interested in quality than quantity :)
      For people interested in high frequency, so many TV channels and their 'expert-tips' are available - lol :))

      Delete

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