Wednesday, 25 December 2013

2013 Portfolio Roundup



With the calendar year coming to an end, it is time to take stock and look back at the year and the developments in the portfolio.

For the majority part of the year, I was bearish on the Indian economy. Even today, I am not convinced that the country is in very good financial health. The recent rally is more based on hope than substance. This rally has been fuelled by the hope of a stable pro-reform BJP government at the centre in 2014. Purely on fundamentals, there is no improvement on the ground. Inflation continues to be high, specially food inflation. It is unlikely to come down any time in the near future as long as the supply side structural issues are not addressed. The Current Account Deficit, thankfully has come down with the prices and consumption of gold falling during the year. Rupee scared everyone (atleast the importers and of course cheered the exporters) by shying away from the Rs 68 mark and settling for some time around 60, up from the 45-50 range established for a fair number of years.

I made some changes to my portfolio. I booked profits on some of the stocks where I had made good profits and where the business climate was looking sluggish for the next few years like Balaji Amines, Titan, GRP, Shriram Transport Finance, Cravatex and JK Lakshmi Cement. I booked losses in CEBBCO (lost 70% of my investment on this), Sintex and Thangamayil Jewellery.

During the year, I added some stocks, which are either more export focused and thus likely to gain by the strength in the dollar or simply who businesses are faring well in this recessionary environment. Shilpa Medicare, Poly Medicure, Alembic Pharma, Ajanta Pharma and Finolex Cables. I have added to my initial positions in PI industries and Kaveri Seeds over the year in small quantities. I have reduced my positions in Cera as I think the price has run much ahead of fundamentals. I have added Page Ind to my portfolio as a dipstick investment more from a tracking perspective. I am still not decided on the valuation comfort in the stock. I have not made any changes to my top 3 holdings.

Over the year, my portfolio has returned 25.14% versus 8.27% of the Sensex and 3.3% of the HDFC Equity fund. I have chosen the HDFC Equity fund as it is one of the largest and best-managed equity fund over a 15 year period. The point is, if I am not beating a decent mutual fund, then I would rather put my money there and go sit on a beach ;-)


Name of Company
% of Portfolio (Dec'12)
% of Portfolio (Dec'13)
Comments
Mayur Uniquoters
19.08%
19.79%
Hold / Buy on dips
Supreme Ind
16.37%
16.42%
Hold / Reduce
Astral Poly
8.02%
14.75%
Hold
Kaveri Seeds
2.02%
6.78%
Hold / Buy on dips
Amara Raja
5.06%
4.98%
Hold
Cera Sanitaryware
7.88%
4.72%
Hold / Reduce
Finolex Cables
0.00%
4.44%
Hold / Buy on dips
Yes Bank
6.03%
3.89%
Buy
Auto Auto
2.88%
3.85%
Hold
PI Industries
0.50%
3.77%
Accumulate
Balkrishna Industries
2.44%
2%
Hold / Reduce
Shilpa Medicare
0.00%
1.99%
Accumulate
Alembic Pharma
0.00%
1.97%
Hold
Ajanta Pharma
0.00%
1.88%
Hold
Poly Medicure
0.00%
1.75%
Accumulate
Page Industries
0.00%
0.66%

Cash
0.31%
6.35%

Balaji Amines
3.51%
0%

CEBBCO
2.20%
0%
Analyze mistake
Cravatex
0.84%
0%

Gujarat Reclaim
2.56%
0%
Wait for turnaround
JK Lakshmi Cement
3.51%
0%
Keep watch; Buying time may be soon
Shriram Transport Finance
8.22%
0%
Keep watch; Buying time may be soon
Sintex India
3.00%
0%
Keep watch; Buying time may be soon
Thangamayil Jewellery
1.22%
0%
Analyze mistake
Titan Industries
4.32%
0%
Keep watch

Learning from Security Analysis - Part 1

I have started re-reading Security Analysis, 6th edition, (also will add on things from the 5th ed). I have been putting it on the backburn...