Using Buffett's guidance to navigate the volatile markets

Argues Abhishek Basumallick, a known value investor: Of course, quality comes at a cost. Growth is good only when the return on equity is greater than the cost of capital. 

Porinju Veliyath of Equity Intelligence India says the basic principles of value investing never change from Graham to Warren Buffett. “When you get stocks at prices that are significantly discounted to their values, buy them. Assessing this value is all about value investing, says he. 

Basumallick says investors should keep in mind that growth in earnings, its sustainability, quality of business and management, the ability to re-invest a large amount of capital back into the business and, most importantly, the price that you pay for a stock will eventually determine your return on that stock. So, the strategy should be to buy quality companies at 'marked down' price when available. 

Read the full article on https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/5-warren-buffett-quotes-that-can-give-you-direction-in-confused-d-street/articleshow/63709483.cms

ETMarkets Special Weekend Podcast: What is the right investment approach

My thoughts growth & value investing on ETMarkets Special Weekend Podcast: What is the right investment approach https://t.co/pPNPrtYftv 

Mar 17, 2018: ETMarkets Special Weekend Podcast: What is the right investment approach

Tune in now! Abhishek Basumallick says how to make a wise investment decision

ECONOMICTIMES.INDIATIMES.COM

Guest Presentation to the CFA Society Kolkata Chapter

Yesterday, I made a guest presentation to the CFA Society Kolkata chapter. It was very heartening to see a lot of young students and investors interested in the process of wealth creation for the long term.

CFA Society Presentation by abhishekbasumallick on Scribd

Charlie Munger - Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes (latticework)

Charlie Munger in full flow during the daily Journal annual meeting. Click on the link below for a full transcript

http://latticeworkinvesting.com/2018/02/19/charlie-munger-full-transcript-of-daily-journal-annual-meeting-2018/

Standing on the shoulders of giants

Yesterday Economic Times profiled me in an article. You can read it here - 
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/up-to-45-times-return-this-kolkata-it-guy-knows-multibaggers-better-than-coding/articleshow/62831441.cms

Sir Isaac Newton once said, If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants. I completely echo his sentiments. Coming from a typical middle-class background,  investing started off as a means of becoming financially stable and free, and over the years has become a passion and a way of life for me. I have learnt many things by sitting and spending time with some of the best thinkers of all times through their written words in books. Investing is on vocation which fulfils my passion and love for reading on myriad topics. 

Buffett and Munger are role models, gurus for me. I have learnt more than investing from them. I have learnt how to lead life. Over the journey of the last 17-18 years, I have had the privilege of learning from a lot of people. I cannot name all of them for some are very private persons and do not want to come into the limelight. I received a fair number of questions and comments on twitter (I have lately reduced drastically my usage of Facebook, so if there are some questions or comments there, I may have missed them). I have tried to group them and put one question for every group and will try to address here. 

Q. Could you guide me where to start to learn about investing?

One of the easiest books to start with is Peter Lynch's "One Up on Wall Street". Not only is it easy to read but it covers enough ground to make it worthwhile for beginners and also intermediate investors. Follow that up with reading a business daily like Economic Times, Business Standard or Mint daily. Also, a couple of business magazines from Outlook Business, Forbes India, Business Today etc. For those who are comfortable reading at length on a computer can take a magzter subscription. Keep at it and gradually you will start understanding about businesses and what drives them. 

You can get basic and advanced tutorials from http://www.investopedia.com/university/all/basics/
You can do them in the following order:
1. Investing 101: A Tutorial For Beginner Investors 
2. Stock Basics Tutorial
3. The Greatest Investors 
4. Understanding The P/E Ratio
5. Become Your Own Financial Advisor
6. Ratio Analysis Tutorial
7. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Investing is like any other vocation. You have to put in years of effort to become an "overnight success" :-)

Q. So far i have not invested anything in stock market.I would like to start it from tomorrow.Can you please suggest me some good company shares, and your valuable suggestions are welcome.

You need to do your own research and build your conviction. If not, even a small fall, and you will run towards the exit door. Taking someone else's stock picks will not help you get better as an investor. Even if you make mistakes in the beginning, they need to be your own mistakes. And you need to take the learnings in your own way from them.

Q. Only thing I was looking into article which seems missing is how do you prepare the very first list of companies out of thousands out there? 

The process of idea generation is not fixed. I can get ideas from reading newspaper or magazine articles, observing actual businesses or from financial screens. I also get a great deal of ideas from valuepickr posts and by speaking to fellow investors. Valuepickr, by far, is the best resource for serious investors in India.

Q. Wouldn't it be better if one were a bit more patient, based on qualitative parameters and the ability of the management as suggested by their history in handling tough times, rather than taking a decision based on price performance of the stock ?

The way I see it is to make money in a stock I need to be right in a few things - i) get the business correct, ii) get the valuation correct and iii) get the market mood correct. If any one of the three is completely wrong, then there is a major possibility of losing a large part of the capital. When a stock falls significantly (say more than 20-25% after I have bought), then one thing is for sure - I have made a mistake in understanding the market mood. I could be wrong on the other two aspects as well. So, I have found it useful to sell, book my losses and then evaluate with a fresh mind later. That way I will not get tied up with endowment bias. This has worked for me. People have to figure out what works for them and follow that path.

Q. Any book recommendations specifically for valuations? 

There are lots of books of valuations. And I have read a fair number of them. The honest answer is most of them are practically worthless :-) So, if you know the basic DCF and PE ratio analysis then you can cover 80-90% of stocks. Just make sure that you focus more on the process of valuation and the assumptions you are making than too much on the precision. 

Weekly Reading: Some interesting stuff

• An interview with Prashant Jain of HDFC Mutual Fund - http://www.morningstar.in/posts/44081/conversation-prashant-jain.aspx

• Read a very interesting article on building the 10,000 experiment mindset instead of 10,000 hrs of deliberate practice - https://medium.com/the-mission/forget-about-the-10-000-hour-rule-7b7a39343523
Following the 10,000-experiment rule means starting your day with not just a to-do list but a “to-test” list like Leonardo Da Vinci. According to Walter Isaacson, one of Da Vinci’s biographers, “Every morning his life hack was: make a list of what he wants to know. Why do people yawn? What does the tongue of a woodpecker look like?”
As you go through your day, following the 10,000-experiment rule means constantly looking for opportunities to collect data rather than just doing what you need to do. It means adding a deliberate reflection process based on reviewing data before the day ends.

• The idea that restaurant prices can vary based on the day of the week and time of day is an interesting one -  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/bob-bob-ricard-restaurant-plans-to-revolutionize-the-way-you-pay-to-eat-out

• General Motors takes away the steering wheel and floor pedals from the new Chevy Bolt autonomous car - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-12/gm-drops-the-steering-wheel-and-gives-the-robot-driver-control

• But in the background, one company solidified itself as a stalwart contender for winning the year: Nvidia. The company announced that it had a new chip custom-built for self-driving cars, and that it was working with more than 320 partners who would use the technology to power their vehicles. It also announced a gaming monitor the size of a television, creating a new class of large-screen devices with the refresh speed required for professional gaming - https://qz.com/1179116/best-of-ces-2018-nvidias-chips-googles-thirst-razers-project-linda-riding-modobag/

• The intriguing story of how Shapoorji Pallonji bought into Tata Sons - https://www.bloombergquint.com/law-and-policy/2018/01/16/the-mistrys-acquired-stake-in-tata-sons-from-jrd-tatas-siblings

• Taking a break improves performance as Roger Federer will testify - https://amp.scroll.in/article/844329/the-most-important-lesson-roger-federers-wimbledon-win-has-taught-us-has-nothing-to-do-with-tennis

• The online streaming video channels are creating micro-niches for themselves across genres and demographics - https://qz.com/1180832/people-are-using-netflix-hulu-and-amazon-prime-in-very-different-ways/

Royal Orchid Hotels - Good times are checking in

Industry Overview

Tourism in India accounts for 9.6 per cent of the GDP and is the 3rd largest foreign exchange earner for the country. It is expected to grow at 16% CAGR to reach INR 2,800 thousand crores in 2022.There are multiple growth drivers in the tourism and thereby in the hotels industry. The government has allowed 100 per cent FDI under the automatic route in the tourism and hospitality sector, including tourism construction projects such as development of hotels, resorts and recreational facilities.

International hotel brands are targeting India. Carlson group is aiming to increase the number of its hotels in India to 170 by 2020. Hospitality majors are entering into tie ups to penetrate deeper into the market, such as Taj & Shangri-La entered into a strategic alliance to improve their reach & market share by launching loyalty program aimed at integrating reward program customers of both hotels. Berggruen Hotels is planning to add around 20 properties under its midmarket segment 'Keys Hotels' brand across India by 2018. Hilton plans to add 18 hotels pan India by 2021, along with 15 operational hotels under its brands namely Hampton, Hilton Garden Inn, Conrad, Hilton Hotels & Resorts & DoubleTree by Hilton. Marriott International plans to open 30 new luxury hotels. As of November 2017, the company operated 93 hotels in India.

In June 2016, the Indian government approved 150 countries under the Visa on Arrival scheme to attract additional foreign tourists. During Jan-Sept 2017, a total of 10.67 lakh tourist arrived on e-tourist Visa as compared to 6.75 lakh during the months of Jan-Sept 2016, registering a growth of 71.0%. Foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India increased 15.5% to 71.20 lakhs compared to 61.63 lakh in the same period.

Medical tourism is another major area of growth. The country is witnessing 22-25% growth in medical tourism. Indian government has also released a fresh category of visa – the medical visa or M visa, to encourage medical tourism in India. Indian medical tourism is expected to reach USD8 billion by 2020.

Domestic expenditure on tourism has grown significantly. Indians are travelling much more frequently for both business and leisure and has been aided by much better connectivity of Tier-II cities by the low-cost airlines. Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) segment is another key growth segment.

Company Overview

Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd (ROHL) is a 31-year-old company which owns and operates hotels in India. It is promoted by Mr Chander Baljee, who is a IIM Ahmedabad alumnus with over 40 years of experience in the hotel industry. Key brands include Royal Orchid (five-star), Royal Orchid Central (four-star), Regenta Hotels (four-star), Royal Orchid Suites (service apartments) and Regenta Inn (budget hotel). It currently operates 47 hotels across India with plans of reaching 50 in FY18.

ROHL operates in 33 cities with a 1.4 lakh loyalty members. Management is planning to grow more by management contracts which is an asset light business model. It requires no upfront capex and can break even at operating level within 1 year.

GST for hotels with room rates between INR 2501-7500 has been reduced from 21% to 18% which is expected to provide a boost by increasing overall affordability.

Currently, the company manages 3269 rooms and is operating at a utilization of 76% in Q2FY18. It expects to add 300 rooms this year and another 1000 rooms in FY19.

The company signed a pact with UK's Bespoke Hotels recently. Under the agreement, Royal Orchid will now offer its guests hundreds of hotel options across multiple global markets and Bespoke will promote the Indian hospitality firm to its guests.

ROHL has two land parcels that it may dispose off – one in Tanzania and another in Mumbai. If it can do so, it may reduce its debt significantly.

What is Changing?

The hotel industry is slowly turning around after many years of sluggish or negative growth. New supply has been low, and demand is inching up. This is causing significant uptick in occupancy rates across the industry. Given that new properties take between 2-3 years to come up, the next phase will see hardening of ARR (average room rates). Hotels with a good brand name with pan India presence and in the affordable luxury segment (3-5 star) would be in great demand.

Risks

Lack of revival in domestic growth can hinder growth. Increase in supply through formal or informal channels (like Airbnb, oyo rooms etc) can keep a lid on ARRs. Any geopolitical incident can severely impact foreign tourist inflow. Large and foreign brands coming into India can provide stiff competition.

Financials

Screener Link: https://www.screener.in/company/ROHLTD/consolidated/

The company seems to be in the initial stages of an industry turnaround. It was loss making between 2012 and 2016 at both PBT and PAT levels. Debt has been reducing over the years and management is focused on reducing it further. In 2017, it has made a turnaround and posted a profit. With better times for the industry, fortunes for the company seems to be looking up.

DISCLOSURE: INVESTED from lower levels. This post is for discussion purposes only. Please do your own due diligence or consult an approved investment advisor before investing in any stocks.